It’s Science Fiction Day on the 2nd of January and it wasn’t so long ago that computers were considered science fiction. I remember back to the first time I saw a computer: my primary school borrowed a computer for a week and we were transfixed by it – it was a BBC Micro and looked like it had come straight from the set of Tomorrow’s World. Whereas now there are iPads and computers in every classroom, almost every home in the country has at least 1 computer along with various tablets and smartphones – something that a lot of people would have definitely thought was science fiction!
Here are some quotes from the past that some very clever people made about computers and got it wrong…
Understatements
Hindsight is wonderful of course, but here are some quotes predicting the growth of computers:
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943
Not even one for each continent..?
“…it is very possible that … one machine would suffice to solve all the problems that are demanded of it from the whole country.”
Charles Darwin, grandson of the famous naturalist, 1946
What do you think he would say today where it is common to have more than one in every home?
Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.
Popular Mechanics, 1949
Technically, this is true, most computers do weigh less than 1.5 tons. Imagine carrying around a laptop that big!
“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.”
Editor, Prentice Hall, 1957
Where would we be without spreadsheets today?
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
Ken Olsen, president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation talking about home automation, 1977
We have 4 computers in our house!
“The truth is no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.”
Clifford Stoll, in Newsweek, 1995
Do you think he was protecting his own job?
Lack of vision:
Luckily for us, there were people with greater vision than these below:
“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.”
TIME Magazine, 1966
I think there are some retailers who would have been a lot happier if this was true!
“But what… is it good for?”
An engineer in the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, talking about the microchip, 1968
A man with little vision, luckily others in IBM could see the potential applications…
“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995
Think he got that wrong!
“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’ — which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants — becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”
Paul Krugman, Professor at Princeton University, 1998
Many would say that nowadays we have too much to say to each other!
“There’s just not that many videos I want to watch.”
Steve Chen, co-founder of YouTube expressing concerns about his company’s long term viability, 2005
Maybe he’s not a cat lover…
A section just for Bill
Bill Gates is undoubtedly one of the world’s most successful men but it’s reassuring to know that even great visionaries can drop a clanger…
“640k ought to be enough for anybody.”
Bill Gates, Founder of Microsoft, talking about memory 1981
Oh dear, if only…
We will never make a 32-bit operating system.
Bill Gates, 1989
Fast-forward to Windows NT 3.1…
Spam will be a thing of the past in two years’ time.
Bill Gates, 2004
This is one we all wish was science fact!
Smartphone predictions:
You may not think of your smartphone as a computer, but it is! Here are some quotes around the smartphone:
“…the idea of a wireless personal communicator in every pocket is ‘a pipe dream driven by greed’.”
Andrew Grove, CEO of Intel, quoted in The New York Times, 1992
Maybe it was driven by greed, but where would we be without our smartphones?
Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.
Alan Sugar, 2005
Not exactly smartphone-related, but so funny I had to include it! He had a point though, not many iPods around now…
“Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cellphone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.’ …It just ain’t gonna happen.”
David Pogue, The New York Times, writing 9 months before the first iPhone was released, 2006
Oops! To be fair, Apple did an amazing job of keeping it quiet…
“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, 2007
Wishful thinking..?
“Let’s look at the facts. Nobody uses those things.”
Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft, on apps, predicting the failure of the iPhone, 2008
More wishful thinking..?
And finally, some more Apple quotes
There has been a lot said about Apple in the past:
“…Apple [is] a chaotic mess without a strategic vision and certainly no future.”
TIME Magazine, February 1996 issue
To be fair, Apple was in a bit of a mess at the time, but no future..? Hmmm…
“The web is going to be very important. Is it going to be a life-changing event for millions of people? No. I mean, maybe. But it’s not an assured yes at this point. And it’ll probably creep up on people.”
Steve Jobs, 1996
It’s reassuring to know that arguably the most famous name in computing can get it wrong!
Are you brave enough to predict what will happen in computing in the next 10 years..?
